The Pink Flamingo :: Manipulating Polls to Influence People

Are you beginning to wonder about some of these polls? There's something that just doesn't seem quite kosher here. I think it's rather obvious that our various MSM outlets are manipulating their polls to make Barack Obama appear as though he is winning. One of the most recent is the CNN poll that has Barack Obama leading John McCain when it comes to handling the economy. We are also told that the poll was conducted over the weekend (prime Dem time, with 909 registered voters and 697 likely voters being questioned. It is not weighted by party. Consequently, it's a crock.

"...McCain and Obama were tied at 48 percent apiece in the previous CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey conducted September 5-7. Obama's advantage, while growing, is still within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Where did Obama make his gains? "In two core McCain constituencies: men, who now narrowly favor Obama, and seniors, who have also flipped from McCain to Obama," said Bill Schneider, a CNN senior political analyst. When including people most likely to vote, the results are pretty much the same. Among likely voters, Obama has a four-point lead, 51 percent to 47 percent...."

Okay, look, the reason all of this is going down is because Americans are racists and aren't going to vote for a Black man. Barack Obama is going to lose about 6% of his supporters on election day because they are a bunch of KKKlovin' bigots who hate black men, right? Wrong. Barack Obama over-polls by a good 5%. If you want The Pink Flamingo's humble opinion, the "racist" excuse is being used to figure out a way to shame those 6% into voting for The One.

Then there is the Diageo-Hotline Tracking Poll. It has Obama leading 47-42%, with 5% more Democrats being asked than Republicans.

IF THE ONE IS DOING SO GOOD...?
If The One is doing so well, why is Sarah Palin out pulling Barack Obama in crowds. Look at the latest Florida stop. If The One is like so The One, why is Sarah Palin going to create the biggest political event in Orange County since Reagan (granted Orange County is GOP)? Why was The One's rally in Green Bay so poorly attended? There were 6,000 for Obama and over 10,000 attended the McCain-Palin rally.

The most telling poll is the one conducted by Lifetime. John McCain now leads by 2%. This is a poll of women. Considering who conducted the poll, I'm giving it some "weight".

58 STATE PLAN?
Evidently The One is now only duking it out in 46 of the 58 states. He has pulled out of North Dakota's "embittered small towns" and sending them to defend Minnesota. Is it possible the problem is The One is now having to fight for Minnesota? He's also surrendered in Georgia, Idaho, and Alaska. The One is losing his hold on Nevada. Rasmussen has Big Mac up by 2% in VA today. Remember, Rasmussen's polls are "weighted" heavily in the Democrats favor.

McCain is up in New Hampshire. The devil is in the details. This pool may be weighted more toward the GOP.

"...These findings are based on the latest WMUR / Granite State Poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University
of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundred fifty (550) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by
telephone between September 14 and September 21, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.2 percent.
Included was a subsample of 523 likely November voters (margin of sampling error, +/- 4.3%). Results reported for other
subgroups have potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population.

The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, and region
of the state. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including
question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response..."

BAD NEW MEXICO POLL
I have a very big problem with the PPP Poll that puts "Obama Way Ahead in NM". Look at the internals - there are none. This specific poll is the exact opposite of one that gives John McCain a 10 point rural advantage in NM. The main thing about the PPP poll, 52% of those polled are Democrats and 32% are Republican, with 15% independent. Yea, that's an accurate poll. The same company, Public Policy Polling has just released their Colorado poll, where Obama is leading 51-44%. Like the NM poll, this one is suspect. It was taken over the weekend. 40% Democrat, 36% Republican and 24% Other.

NORTH CAROLINA NUMBERS
The latest NC poll - Civitas - has it tied, with 11% more Democrats asked than Republicans. Then look at the ARG numbers for Michigan. There are 7% more Democrats and 27% Independents. In other words, Big Mac has a chance in Michigan. Just look at ARG's California #'s. It is possible CA is closer than we think it is. It's like the ARG FL numbers. There's 5% more Democrats and 17% Independents. The reason I know ARG's #are wrong is because of the SC poll. there are 35% Democrats, 45% Republicans and 20% Independents. The GOP #'s here are too low. They should probably be at least 5% higher. If you check ARG, where they are tinkering with the #'s is in the "Independent" percentages.

"...PPP surveyed 1,084 likely voters on September 20 and 21st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify...."

SOMETHING GOING ON
I am fully aware that polls are "weighted" to reflect party affiliation. I guess if I were going to do things, I would give something like a 40-40 split with the rest independents. Something very strange is going on with the Rasmussen numbers that gives McCain ONLY a 6 point lead in SC. Rasmussen has McCain attracting 89% of GOP votes, he is viewed favorably by 57% of SC voters. If you check the "weight" of the Rasmussen polls, you will see that he gives a 6% bump to Democrats. In South Carolina, that is very, very wrong. The Democratic party in SC is in huge trouble. If this is the case, Rasmussen is very off the mark with these numbers.

UPDATED: TUESDAY AFTERNOON:
The Palmetto Scoop has the latest poll out of SC. John McCain has a 19 point lead!

So, let's get back to that "SIX POINT LOSS" due to racism. Barack Obama over performs in polls a good 5%. He was not able to "close the deal" in outright elections over Hillary Clinton. Right now, no matter how bad things are, the race is "mirroring 2004". That really doesn't say much about Barack Obama as a candidate.

Then again, AJ Strata thinks there is a possibility that California is "in play". I'm not sure. Strata has been one of the most positive forces out there for a McCain-Palin victory this November. Right now I'm not so sure. If what Brian Wilson had on FOX this AM about overwhelming numbers of new voters registering, we're sunk. We all know who is registering these voters. This is the one reason I am not optomistic at all. We are playing with a candidate who does not play by the rules of civilized behavior. He lies and he cheats. He has no moral compass. When dealing with someone like this, and the duplicity of the media, the good guys don't stand a snowball's chance.