The Pink Flamingo :: The Sky is Falling, Voters Leaving GOP?

Things are changing. Currently the latest polls state that while the GOP has fewer voters than it has had in years, the Dems are also losing numbers. Independents are growing in number. The fascinating numbers are the growth of the Dem brand over a few month period in 2006. If the growth was purely to protest the War, then these numbers may desert the Dems.

"...In 2004, the Democrats began the year with a 2.3 percentage point edge over the GOP. That grew to 4.0 points by March before moving in the Republican direction for the rest of the year. By Election Day in 2004, the edge for Democrats was a mere 1.6 percentage points. In 2006, the Democrats began the year with just a 1.6 percentage point advantage. That grew to 6.1 percentage points by November...."

Even with all the new voters Barack Obama is allegedly registering, the Dem numbers are shrinking. It would be fascinating to compare those numbers with actual Dem registration. It is entirely possible, deleting the new voters that Obama has brought in (who may or may not vote) that the Dem brand may be more tarnished than we think it is. Even with Obama's people registering even the dead, those numbers are declining. Then check out the Rasmussan tracking. Next, how many Hillary supporters have registered Independent or as GOP?

The sky is falling. The NYTimes has an article about tthe GOP losing voters. There are several reasons for this. First is the movement of Californians and New Yorkers to more favorable locations, turning previously Red States purple or even blue. We are seeing this in Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado.

(There is one interesting demographic about New Mexico that is ignored. Because the state has one of the highest state income tax rates in the nation, there are thousands upon thousands of migrants from Texas who still maintain an address somewhere other than New Mexico. If these people were around to vote, NM would be one of the Reddest states in the nation.)

There is a generational change. The liberals in the education system have done their jobs, well. The younger generation has new brains, already squeeky clean from having been completely washed. These kids are some of the most liberal voters this nation has seen. There is one hope. Remember the Baby Boomers, the war protesters, hippies, etc. We're now the most conservative segment of the population. If we can stand 'em, give them 20 years and they will be Republicans. All they need to do is start earning money that is taxed.

There are two groups in the GOP who are so angry they are leaving the party to become independent. First there are the arch conservatives who are not happy with the GOP. They aren't Republican and never have been, but have a tendency to vote with the GOP when backed into a corner. They hate the GOP and are not above doing what they can to destroy it. There are a few states where independents are so many in number they now constitute a sizable voting block. If you start going through the stats, these are the states experiencing the greatest out-growth of the KKK and white supremacists. I think there is a direct connection in the rise of "independents" (they will be aligned with the Libertarians, Constitution, National Socialist parties). From the NY Times:

"...Over the same period, the share of the electorate that registers as independent has grown at a faster rate than Republicans or Democrats in 12 states. The rise has been so significant that in states like Arizona, Colorado and North Carolina, nonpartisan voters essentially constitute a third party...."

Rush Limbaugh's Worst Nightmare: Then there are "normal" Republicans who are more moderate. They have been pushed away from the party by the likes of the Ron Paul bots who are rude, nasty, vile, and extremely insulting. Don't worry, they're still going to vote GOP, but from what I've seeing, they aren't going to tell a pollster anything because they are so angry with conservatives. A McCain victory will bring these people back into the party.

New Hampshire is now no longer a given for the GOP. The world is becoming Democrat, or is it? Is New Hampshire an example for the world to see as Republicans allegedly jump over-board like rats leaving a sinking ship, or is something else afoot? What if the world were simply changing. We hear the rumors of urbanites leaving the big cities, taking their Blue ways to previously Red States turning them Purple.

"...Now it shows signs of an uptick. In 2006, almost 50 million people, or 16.2% of Americans, had changed residences in the previous year. Most of the draws for out-of-state movers are in the West. Destinations included Nevada — the state with the fastest-growing population throughout much of this decade — Alaska, Wyoming, Idaho, Arizona and Oregon...."

California's population is shrinking and moving out of the state. Even I've been guilty of spreading this urban rumor. Yet, if you check the demographics, you will find this isn't quite true. More people are leaving the state than moving into it, but the birth rate alone will maintain a slight edge in growth.

"... nearly 1.5 million net loss of Californians from 1992 to 1998 was due primarily to the collapse of the state's aerospace industry and the economic downturn that followed. "This is a little different," he said. "I don't think this is a judgment on the economy. Job growth and personal income growth is stronger in the state than anywhere in the nation." Still, the state population grew to 37,004,661 by July 1, an increase of 1.4 percent or nearly 500,000 people, according to the report. It concluded that 64.2 percent of the growth could be attributed to natural increase, which continued a trend that began in 2002. About 557,000 births and 237,000 deaths occurred in the state during the fiscal year, accounting for an increase of 320,000 people..."

The sky is falling because Nevada, once a GOP strong-hold is turning Purple. Republicans are dumping their party, right? Wrong.

"...Even though fewer are migrating here, however, U-Haul still counts more people moving to Nevada from California than from any other state. In 2007, 61 percent of the people who used U-Haul to move into Nevada came from California (56 percent of those who moved out of Nevada went to California.) In the first five months of 2008, the percentages were almost the same, 61 percent of those migrating to Nevada came from California and 60 percent of those moving out of Nevada went to California...."

The state of Washington is growing bluer, a sign that the GOP is in trouble, right? Wrong.

"...The economy of such a populous neighbor as California has considerable effect on Washington’s growth. Drivers’ license data indicate that California contributes the largest share, from 40 to 50 percent, of the net movement into Washington from other states. The current 12-month license total of individuals moving from California is 34,000. This compares to 38,000 in 2006 and a peak of about 40,000 licenses from California in the early 1990s. Movement from Oregon, the second largest contributor of migrants into Washington, has also slowed...."