The Pink Flamingo :: Heather Wilson Announces for Senate

Heather Wilson is going to take a shot at Domenici’s seat. I think she probably has the best shot. She can pull big numbers here in this part of the state. She has her district, and there are a few Republicans west of here. I think she has a much better chance of taking the state than retaining her current House seat. I don’t want Steve Pearce to jump into the race. He is a very good Congressman and, we are discovering here, a worthy successor to the late, very great, Joe Skeen. I honestly don’t want to see Pearce go for it. Wilson has a better chance of taking the state. If there is a primary, will Pearce give up his House seat? It is a given that a Dem will take Wilson’s vacated seat. The next question is if it will be Patricia Madrid.

THE RICHARDSON FACTOR
Then, will Bill Richardson make a run for it? I think it all boils down to the Richardson factor. Contrary to what he says, Bill Richardson would probably jump at the VP slot. His protestations are possibly a way to bring more attention to a floundering campaign.

The Debate Link

“…Meanwhile, the Democrat's top two choices both appear to be out. Governor Bill Richardson is still continuing his quixotic campaingn for the presidency, and, in a slightly more surprising announcement, Rep. Mark Udall (D) has decided to forgo the race as well. Still, it's a state that is trending blue, in a blue trend year, and Democrats have to remain optimistic -- assuming they can find a viable candidate. New Mexico is a pretty small state, so there just aren't that many other big name figures who could jump at this point. Attorney General Patricia Madrid may try to reprise her 2006 fight against Wilson statewide (she lost a House race to her by less than 900 votes). But while Madrid is a strong candidate on paper, she is not all that popular in the state (a swing voter friend of mine from Wilson's district said that, while she'd be open to voting out Wilson, Madrid was simply "the sleaziest politician I've ever seen").”

The Debate Link is fairly right on in his assessment of the situation here. Here is my response to him.

I am quite impressed with your explanation and understanding of the situation here in NM. I think Wilson has a better chance statewide than in her district that is growing increasingly Dem due the the influx of the "California "Type" voter up in that region of the state. If she can hold her own in the western part of the state, Lincoln County, where I live, should be able to put her over the top in votes. What people don't realize about Lincoln County is the fact that, in 2000, the only reason Al Gore took the state (by some 400+ votes) was because on election eve we were hit by a massive blizzard, where the county was inundated by a minimum of 30 inches of snow. Something like 3000 GOP voters were snowed in and unable to vote.  I would rather see Wilson run than my Congressman, Steve Pearce. He is turning into a very good successor to Joe Skeen. It would be a shame to lose him. I think Wilson has a better chance statewide than Pearce.  The problem with the GOP is they will run just anyone, literally, and field some of the worst candidates I've ever seen. I don't know if I would count Bill Richardson out of the picture. He's running for the VP slot.

John Fund from the Political diary:

“New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici's retirement due to ill health marks the fifth GOP retirement from the Senate, and has raised Democratic hopes of sweeping the table of all five open Senate seats. Complicating matters, Republicans will have to defend 22 Senate seats next year versus only 12 for the Democrats, and no Democratic senators have announced they are leaving yet.

But Democrats shouldn't count the New Mexico seat in the bag yet. The state did, after all, go for President Bush in 2004 and unless Governor Bill Richardson abandons his campaign for president, Democrats so far lack a truly compelling frontrunner. Congressman Tom Udall has announced he won't be seeking the Senate seat. Former state Attorney General Patricia Madrid has won statewide in the past but proved a less than sure-footed candidate when she ran for the House last year against GOP Rep. Heather Wilson of Albuquerque. She lost by 900 votes after an embarrassing misstep over a debate question on taxes in a district that usually votes Democratic for president.

For her part, Rep. Wilson will be announcing her candidacy for the Senate today. A former Rhodes Scholar and Air Force officer, she has demonstrated prodigious fund-raising abilities in holding her marginal House seat over the last decade. Her Achilles heel could be a conservative primary challenge. The free-market Club for Growth blasted her record yesterday, noting that she frequently bolts from the party on tax and spending issues, including expansion of the SCHIP children's health insurance program. Rep. Steve Pearce, a more conservative House member from the cowboy country of New Mexico, is also mulling a possible run for the Domenici seat. He would make a formidable general election candidate, albeit with a different appeal than the maverick reputation Ms. Wilson has cultivated.”

And Liz Mair on the election.

“…However, facing Wilson could be a problem beyond a resurgent Democratic Party led by the powerful Richardson in New Mexico and the West, generally. Rep. Steve Pearce also appears interested in running for Domenici's seat, and if he does, a nasty primary between the two representatives could ensue. Not only do rumors abound that Wilson and Pearce personally dislike each other, but Wilson is a confirmed moderate and member of the centrist Republican Main Street Partnership -- while Pearce is a conservative member of the Republican Study Committee who bests her on the Club for Growth's 2006 congressional scorecard and its recent RePork Card, thus creating the possibility of a Club-backed Pearce candidacy to match Wilson's likely RMSP-backed candidacy.  Despite the fact that Wilson, the moderate, looks philosophically best-placed to carry this purple state, the conservatism of the GOP base combined with concerns about Wilson's possible involvement in the U.S. Attorneys scandal (and possible Club dollars flowing to Pearce) could tip the balance against her -- meaning an even bloodier primary fight. But it also raises the possibility that not only will Domenici's seat lie open for the taking by a Democrat, who could have free rein to campaign without Republican interference as a GOP primary war wages, but so could both Wilson's first district, and Pearce's second district seats….”