VERY BAD POLLS - BADLY DONE - HEAVILY WEIGHTED FOR DEMS

 

 

The new CBS poll is a hatchet job with 1168 adults interviewed nationwide.  The big thing is to get the 29=8% disapproval numbers, CBS asked 292 Republicans, 444 Dems, and 423 Independents.  Even Drudge, who is flashing red headlines about the numbers knows this is a set-up to make the President look bad before the State of the Union.  I don’t know about you, but when all of these polls are of adults, not registered voters and heavily weighted to the Dems – I smell a rat!   In the CBS poll they interviewed an over-sampling of 221 African Americans in order to sand-bag the President and give him such bad numbers.   The big thing is 63% of Republicans still approve of the President, contrary to the way it is presented.  CNN interviewed 1008 adult Americans.  To get their numbers they needed to interview  467 registered Dems or independents who lean Dem and 365 registered as either Republicans or independents who lean GOP.  In other words, CNN needed 102 more Dems to tank GWB.   NBC-WSJ is also a bad poll.  1007 adults were interviewed.  No party affiliation is given.  ABCNews-Washington Post is a sampling of 1,000 adults, on this one 56% leaned Dem, with 34% leaning GOP.   The Newsweek Poll did 1003 adults with 26% GOP, 37% Dem, 33% Independent.  In order for Rasmussen to get his bad results he interviews 1500 adults,  not even mentioning which party.  Rasmussen sold out about a year ago, which is when the President’s numbers really went down hill.   I don’t know about you, but I think this is disgusting.  I would love to see an HONEST poll about the President’s approval numbers.

 

“…At Rasmussen Reports, we adjust our party identification weighting targets each month based upon actual survey results from the previous 90 days. For the month of December, our partisan weighting targets are 37.4% Democrat, 31.8% Republican, and 30.8% unaffiliated. Our November targets were 37.3% Democrat, 31.9% Republican, and 30.8% unaffiliated…”

 

Right now, you listen to O’Reilly and hear him go off into orbit over states with either no mandatory prison sentences or judges who just give a tap on the hands for child molestation and sex offenders.  Perhaps it is time to relieve state judges of this responsibility and create some mandatory federal sentencing guidelines.  I would submit maybe we need to make child molestation a national crime and also make it into a Federal hate crime. 

 

The big news of the day, the babies are ready for potty training!  With luck I can get to Wally-world for some scoop-able litter (for those who want to know, we use crystals) and a foil tray.  Mommy Cat should be able to teach them in several days.  If not, I’ll let Doc go in and do her ‘Auntie Doc’ thing.  She’s already trained two sets of kittens.  She loves kittens and can’t wait for me to open the pet gate so she can go in and play baby.  My kitten wrangler, Sydney, reports that she has a home for the little red kitten.  I am a bit skeptical, so her mother is checking out the situation for me.  I know just the person to take on the little calico, but don’t know if it will happen.  Sydney’s grandparents lost their cat about a year ago.  Her grandmother recently had a stroke and a hip replacement.  I think she needs a new friend.  So does Sydney (naturally).   Yesterday I accidentally locked Brunhilda (age 17.5) in my bedroom for nearly 14 hours.  I think she might have enjoyed it by herself.  The good thing is she used Rumsfeld’s piddle pads.  (With all this snow, no way any of us go out).  Her urine looks clear, which is a very good thing, considering her advancing kidney failure.  It made me feel so much better.  There’s still a bit of life left in the senile old girl! 

 

I think I may have had all of 3 hrs sleep Sat night.  Was up early Sun to see if I would be able to go online.  I went to bed fairly early for me last night, 12:30.  Or at least I tried.  Rumsfeld was a little stinker, pulling and yanking at blankets, chewies, his toothbrush (He only chews on Oral B’s) toys, etc.  This went on for nearly an hour.  About the time I get him quiet, the cats start infighting.  With luck the babies’ father will be heading to the vet tomorrow for adoption.  He is fighting with his two sons.  The fought until 2PM.  Then they decided to play.  It sounded like a herd of elephants jumping and running around my condo.  I think I fell asleep around 3PM!  I did sleep in, as we had about 8-10 inches of snow last night and this morning and it’s just no use going outside at all.  We’ve had about 18 inches since Fri.  Much of it blew away in the severe wind we had Sat night.  There is a 3-4 foot drift blocking the lane we use to turn into to exit the condos.  Naturally our (I will not use the word I call him) maintenance person has done nothing yet. 

 

I have been very concerned about Bat Masterson’s attitude and the way he seems to be fighting, and crying.  He and Redford were just tussling and I noticed him cry, then start limping.  Maybe that’s the problem – his birth injury.  I certainly hope it is.

 

Over on one of the blogs this evening I saw a posting that why even bother watching the State of the Union as the President is now completely irrelevant, and this is coming from someone who claims to be a Republican.  The only people truly making him appear to be irrelevant are the Republicans in the House and Senate who are so fearful of their own jobs that they can’t stand up and do what is right.  Then John Warner and John Bohner (both “JOHNS” – the same name used for the men who pimp prostitutes – and just as appropriate) chime in and say they are listening to the polls that the American people aren’t happy about Iraq.  Vietnam all over again!  With friends like these, the President really doesn’t even need Dems. 

  

Anyone who has ever been in my position, or who has been through what I have would understand.  The worst thing about what I went through is the powers who be (all now long dead) in Fair Play went to our attorney, who later became a district judge.  They refused to assist my parents, and facilitated the removal of all important records about this person’s employment by Oconee County.  My parents attorney dismissed them as clients and our local state representative worked along side him to do so.  We later discovered the brother-in-law of the politician was a child molester himself. 

 

I always have questions about judges and prosecutors who refuse to handle these things.  Are they pedophiles themselves?  The only way we are going to solve this problem is to make child molestation a Federal crime.  

 

Barone has a piece in RCP today that echoes what I was thinking just this afternoon.  Iowa and New Hampshire have WAY too much power and influence when picking the presidential nominees.  Fortunately Iowa doesn’t have a good track record of picking the winner.  If you want my humble opinion, we need to have maybe a half dozen ‘super Tuesdays’.  This would completely strip any one state’s specific block of voters from choosing a specific candidate.  To me the whole process via Iowa, NH, and SC is just plain sickening.  It reeks of nothing but legalized prostitution.  It also breeds a certain degree of arrogance in these states which is also just plain downright disgusting.   John Edwards has been virtually living in Iowa for months.  Hillary may not do well there.  Romney could pull it out there because of the specific caucus goer – even though Romney can’t seem to pull above 6-9% nationally. 

 

With any luck, when Indiana Jones returns, he’ll be bringing his Dad along!

 

 

How many Oscar nominations is algore going to pick up this week?

 

I am very impressed with the comment Michael Zak made about my comment on his entry about John C. Fremont.  You need to check out his Back to Basics for the GOP web site,RepublicanBasics.com    Excellent.    And – much needed.  I don’t think people realize how ‘liberal’ the GOP was in days gone by, at the forefront of abolition and the Civil Rights Movement.  Zak needs to be commended for his work, that’s for sure!  For some time the GOP was the ‘liberal’ party, liberal being personal freedom.  Teddy Roosevelt is the President who broke up the big business monopolies and put an end to the Robber Baron era. It’s too bad we’re branded as reactionary because of the backward looking antics of a few people who claim to be true Republicans, but aren’t.

 

AJ Strata on spy v. spy.  The story is the gift that keeps on giving for Strataspher.

Malkin on Sandy Berger.

Is it possible some climatologists have egg on their face right about now?

 

 

Another interesting Tancredo comment from my Blog Critics commentary on Tancredo.

 

“…I am from Tom's district here in Colorado, and one of the few Democrats left.  Dr Kurt's assesment  (sic)of our district is dead on.  To say our district is racists isn't necessarily accurate.  I can tell you there are absolutely no minorities here in Douglas county.  Don't know that it makes us racist... but it is a fact. Needless to say, as a Dem in Douglas County, I watch Tancredo's moves very closely.  Tom is running for president, I promise you that.  However, he won't get far.  I think his biggest impact will be getting the other GOP candidates to seriously address the immigration issue.  Once they (if they) manage to do that... he will be deflated.  He is a one trick pony, I promise. One thing to Tom's credit, though.  To be fair, Tom has been banging the anti-immigration drum long before Sept 11th.  During the last debate he had for his seat in the district last year (which he almost lost), he made a great point:  I say what I mean and mean what I say.  It is true, he isn't duplicitous to me. As a (er... the Democrat down here, I am stoked to see him run for President.  It will take him out of this district and we can get Bill Winter in his seat.  Tancredo won't win anyway... so this is just a big 'Go away Tom' initiative as I see it….”L from Parker, CO.

 ISLAM, IRAN, TERROR

Did we dodge a bullet when major terror plans were found in Iraq, or are they in place?   Wake Up America   In the Bullpen   Malkin

WizBang on the enemy

 CAIR in Canada

Al Qaeda and immigration - Counterterror Blog

The Political Pitbull on the NYTimes, Pakistan, Iran

The Rightwing Guy on the coming war

The Islamic leader for Somalia surrenders.

CAIR and Boxer, a love affair gone bad?

The Captain's Quarters and Obama

This is a story you aren’t seeing in the US papers.  From the Canadian Free Press – is Obama the Manchurian Candidate or the Mohammedan Candidate?    In order to be politically correct and not ask embarrassing questions, the MSM is ignoring the fact that the madrassas in Indonesia have been, for some time, the most radical in the world. 

 

“…Obviously, the background investigation will provide major ammunition to his opponents who will portray him as a "deceptive". Last March CFP lamented about Obama's mainstream media ignored "What if" category. "The "What If" category of "the new face of change and reform for the democratic party" doesn't get written up by the mainstream media.  "What if Obama is engaged in pious fraud? This is a Muslim practice of pretending not to be Muslim to further the cause of Islam or to "defend the faith". He becomes President and then says, "Gee...I think I want to be Muslim again" after he finds the "football" in his hands that carries the launch codes for the USA nuke forces. "What if Obama's into Pious Fraud Islam-Hudaibiyah treaty" kiss the hand of your enemy until you can cut if off?" (www.freerepublic.com). "Not Obama? Remember the pictures of the little kids bobbing their heads up and down at the madrassas? They are all of the age Obama would have been back in Indonesia." The calendar raced ahead and today's polls show Clinton and Obama running neck and neck. But The man who receives his  mail at 555 Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington D.C., Capitol Hill is Madrassa-trained with the same kind of schooling as those infidel-hating kids in Pakistan….”

IRAQ

Republican appeasers who are more interested in reading trumped up poll #’s and saving their skin than doing what is right.  You gotta love these people.

John Warner introducing the resolution.   Blog Lizards

From the American Thinker today:  Did the AP help stoke the fires of civil war in Iraq.  If this is the truth, then what do we do with them.  This may be the most important story Malkin has ever covered.    Called as Seen also picks up on it.

From today’s Opinion-Journal Political Diary email."[A Fox News poll] came out last week and it posed various questions about whether folks thought the 'surge' was a good idea or not. Including the following: 'Do you personally want the Iraq plan President Bush announced last week to succeed?' And here's how the American people answered: 63 percent said yes, 22 percent said no, 15 percent said they didn't know. Let me see if I understand that. For four years, regardless of this or that position on the merits of the war, almost everybody has claimed to 'support our troops.' Some of us have always thought that 'supporting the troops' while not supporting them in their mission is not entirely credible. But here we have 37 percent of the American people actually urging defeat on them" -- Columnist Mark Steyn, writing in the Chicago Sun-Times.”

 

PRIMARIES 2008:  Liz Mair over at GOP Progress has several interesting takes on Romney flipping and flopping over abortion.  Giuliani hires Raffini.  Giuliani is heading to FL this week.  Bohner is close to endorsing Romney.  I'm very disgusted with Bohner today.  I think he has betrayed the President.  DeMint has lost an aid to McCain.  I keep telling you there is a power struggle in SC, or DeMint would like to have a power struggle against Lindsey.   Brownback's right turn.  Did Brownback flip-flop on abortion?  Looks to me like Giuliani serious. And Hillary.  I bet this is driving HRH Nancy I absolutely bonkers.  Did Romney flip once too often?  Let's face it, Rudy's numbers look good.  With CA and FL moving up, it is only going to help him.  Like Obi Wan Kenobi, he is our only hope!  Giuliani on abortion.  And the Captain's Quarter's picked up my comment that Richardson could be Hillary's worst nightmare.

 

RESEARCH FOR THE RANT!

 

I saw this on FOX, about the illegal who has figured a way around a child abuse charge – deportation.    This brings me to one of my rants and raves for the day.  Then we read how many illegal alien sex offenders there are.  From numbers I’ve noticed we’re tracking/arrested about 240,000 or so.  Read these numbers from Dr. Deborah Schurman-Kauflin, Ph. D.  Boy do I have problems with this article esp. since the author references WND, and her Fed statistics citations cannot be found.

 

“….Based on population numbers of 12,000,000 illegal immigrants and the fact that young males make up more of this population than the general U.S. population, sex offenders in the illegal immigrant group make up a higher percentage. When examining ICE reports and public records, it is consistent to find sex offenders comprising 2% of illegals apprehended. Based on this 2% figure, which is conservative, there are approximately 240,000 illegal immigrant sex offenders in the United States. Of the 1500 cases reviewed, 525 (35%) were child molestations, 358 (24%) were rapes, and 617 (41%) were sexual homicides and serial murders. Of the child molestations, 47% of the victims were Hispanic, 36% were Caucasian, 8% were Asian, 6% were African American, and 3% were other nationalities. In most instances, the offenders were familiar with their victims. In fact, 82% of the victims were known to their attackers. The other 18% were molested by strangers. In those instances, the illegal immigrants typically gained access to the victims after having worked as a day laborer at or near the victims’ homes. Victims ranged in age from 1 year old to 13 years old, with the average age being 6. In rape cases, the offenders were less likely to know their victims. Only 64% of the victims knew their attackers. Furthermore, rape victims proved to be more diverse than child molestation victims. Hispanic and Caucasian victims were identical at 35% each….”

 

This is another article quoted, with the number of 3400 internationals arrested for sex crimes in 2004.   BUT – read the article.  We’re not all that many illegals from Mexico as we are major international child pornography sweeps.  But this is referenced to prove how nasty illegals are.

 

How about the infamous AAA article everyone quotes about how unlicensed illegal drivers are responsible for 20% of all traffic fatalities.  Well, here’s the link, and nowhere, NOWHERE are illegals mentioned.  New Mexico is cited for having the highest numbers of unlicensed fatalities.  I know for a fact this is not as much an illegal issue as it is a cultural issue here in NM dealing with drunken cowboys who do not have licenses (this is a serious problem) and the native American culture where many drivers are not licensed. Here it is NOT an illegal issue, but anti-Hispanic forces present it as such.   The other very serious issue here in NM is driving while intoxicated.  NM leads the nation, or is right up there, in traffic fatalities in this category also.  The go hand in hand.   This is a serious disservice.  Just how many of these unlicensed drivers have had their licenses suspended for alcohol related issues.   In the detailed 120 page report, illegal aliens were not an issue.   The issue is unlicensed drivers who have serious alcohol related problems and not illegal immigrants! But, the anti-immigration foes have taken these stats and run with them. 

 

“…There is a growing body of literature related to state driver-control practices, in

particular the behavior of drivers with an aberrant license. All states face similar problems

in identifying these drivers, stopping them from operating a motor vehicle without

a valid license, and ultimately bringing them back into compliance with state laws

regarding obtaining or reinstating a license. As will become clear from the following

literature review, many of these issues center on controlling repeat offenders, especially

with respect to state laws for driving under the influence (DUI) of alcohol. A second

and inextricably related set of issues centers not on DUI but on multiple offenders

against state laws regarding the payment of fines, attendance at mandatory court appearances,

and repeatedly driving without a valid license. Thus, a habitual drunk driver

may also be a scofflaw with respect to driving while suspended (DWS), and a habitual

DWS driver may be one who earned that suspension not by drunk driving but by

failing to appear in court or pay a fine (related terms include driving while revoked, or

DWR, and driving while unlicensed, or DWU). These issues are dealt with in detail in

chapter 3….”

 

“…Other researchers have attempted to learn about the driving behavior of suspended

and revoked drivers using the interview approach. For example, Ross and Gonzales

(1988) interviewed 71 drivers whose licenses had been suspended or revoked because of

a DUI offense in Tucson, Arizona, and Albuquerque, New Mexico. Of the 68 drivers

from whom complete information was collected, 45 (66%) reported that they continued

to drive while under suspension. Age, gender, and repeat offender status make a

difference in this proportion, with 77% of young men driving while suspended relative

to 70% for all women, and 52% for older men. It is surprising that first offenders were

more likely to drive (94%) under suspension than were repeat offenders (52%), but this

result is likely due to the supervised probation program for repeat offenders in both

communities included in the sample….”

 

Now I think we know just who is driving without a license – and it isn’t the illegal immigrant, that’s for sure.  Try this comment from the piece, while it points to undocumented aliens, it states they are not the primary cause of unlicensed drivers.

“…California’s experts on DWS and DWR and unlicensed drivers believe that the

system, as it exists now, has too many incentives for not obtaining a license or reinstating

one after a suspension. Unlicensed drivers are often doing so because they are undocumented

aliens and/or because they cannot afford to meet the insurance requirements.

Insurance costs are the reason most often cited for a driver’s failure to reinstate his or her

license after a suspension….”

 

BUT – Try this hit piece (sorry about the pun) from Congress and Immigration.  They quote the AAA report, but put their own spin, even admitting there are no numbers to back up their spin. 

 

 

“…In 2000, the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety released a comprehensive report Unlicensed to Kill detailing the carnage being caused by unlicensed drivers.  While the report did not identify if the unlicensed drivers were illegal aliens or not, it did note that of the 278,078 drivers involved in fatal crashes in the US between 1993 and 1997 some 3.7% were unlicensed, 2.7% were of unknown licensed status, and another 7.4% were driving on invalid licenses.  The end result is that during the period 42,049 people were killed in crashes involving at least one driver who was unlicensed, driving on an invalid license, or with a license of unknown status.  The report also notes that DUI drivers also played a significant part in the highway carnage….” 

 

Or this quote…

 

“…How many hit and run accidents are there?  As reported by Deadly Roads, as of November 13, 2006, there have already been 1,346 killed and 91,562 injured in hit and run accidents in 2006.  Extrapolating for the year, 2006 will end up with about 1,540 killed and 104,700 injured by hit and run drivers.  If the illegal alien population was responsible for just 5% of the carnage, that would result in 77 killed and 5,235 injured by illegal aliens in just hit and run accidents in 2006.  However, as previously noted, the data suggests that the proportional involvement of illegal aliens is far higher. As noted in Not all Hit and Run Accident Victims Die, often the injuries are often crippling, life long, and require many years of treatments and hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars in medical costs….”

 

Please note that all statistics shown are hypothetical and cannot be validated.

 

Try the article Deadly Roads.  It also quotes the AAA study, which I have shown does not have the stats reported.

 

“…Drivers with suspended, expired or revoked licenses may flee, rather than risk explaining to a police officer why they are driving. Unlicensed driving is an ever increasing problem. This is especially true in California, where some estimate as many as 1 million unlicensed drivers occupy that states highways. Many drivers with no license are illegal immigrants, who risk deportment with any law enforcement contact. (See AAA report: Unlicensed to Kill). The Arizona Daily Star, in a 12/18/2005 article entitled 'The Hit-Kill-And-Run State: Arizona Nears Grim Title', the authors supply interesting evidence that illegal immigration is causing a very serious hit and run problem, by showing the top seven states the Pew Hispanic Center estimates hold the largest population of illegal immigrants, also happen to be the top seven states with hit and run fatalities, as shown by FARS reports….”  

 

And what does World Net Daily say about all of this? 

“…A report by the AAA Foundation for Traffic Study found 20 percent of fatal accidents involve at least one driver who lacks a valid license. In California, another study showed that those who have never held a valid license are about five times more likely to be involved in a fatal road accident than licensed drivers….”  What’s even better about this whopper?  The link goes to another WND article  where the above quote is presented, but guess what?  They are the one who creates the quote everyone is using!

 

Ah, yes, one of the most quoted articles used to denounce illegals as all criminals, rapists, and murders comes from Heather MacDonald, one of the most biased and bigoted anti-Hispanic conservative writers anywhere. The statistics she uses for this article have been repeatedly disputed.   And World Nut Daily says illegals murder 12 Americans every day!  There is a fascinating table, A-8 on page 69.  From the period of 1993-1999 (when stats are available) there is a fascinating table on country of origin for hit and run Status.   Of 9,824 drivers studied, with license origin, 199 were from Mexico and 426 were from other countries, with 1,788 from ‘unknown state or country’.

 

According to ICE records, some 3000 child molesters have been arrested since 2003.   Now, look at the WND (World Nut Daily)’s article from Aug 22, 2006.

“…Deborah Schurman-Kauflin, a Ph.D. researcher of violent crimes, told WorldNetDaily, "It appears as if there is a fear that if this is honestly discussed, people will hate all illegal immigrants. So there is silence. … But in being silent about the rapes and murders, it is as if the victims never even existed." Schurman-Kauflin, who runs the Violent Crimes Institute in Atlanta, participated in a 12-month, in-depth study of illegal immigrants who committed sex crimes and murders from January 1999 through April 2006. The study found approximately 240,000 illegal-immigrant sex offenders reside in the United States – while 93 sex offenders and 12 serial sexual offenders come across U.S. borders illegally every day. ..” 

Debunking the above is a well-documented article from Migration Information.   

“…But correlation is not causation. In fact, immigrants have the lowest rates of imprisonment for criminal convictions in American society. Both the national and local-level findings presented here turn conventional wisdom on its head and present a challenge to criminological theory as well as to sociological perspectives on "straight-line assimilation."


For every ethnic group without exception, the census data show an increase in rates of criminal incarceration among young men from the foreign-born to the US-born generations, and over time in the United States among the foreign born — exactly the opposite of what is typically assumed both by standard theories and by public opinion on immigration and crime. Paradoxically, incarceration rates are lowest among immigrant young men, even among the least educated and the least acculturated among them, but they increase sharply among the US born and acculturated second generation, especially among the least educated — evidence of downward assimilation that parallels patterns observed for marginalized native minorities. What is more, these patterns have now been observed consistently over the last three decennial censuses, a period that spans precisely the eras of mass immigration and mass imprisonment — and they recall similar findings reported by three major commissions during the first three decades of the 20th century, a previous era of mass migration and crime concerns. Nativity emerges in this analysis as a stronger predictor of incarceration than education. When immigration and generational status are taken into account, the association between (lower) education and (higher) crime and incarceration rates is complicated in ways not anticipated by canonical perspectives….”

Along the line of the above, I’ve always wondered about the numbers presented about illegal aliens as pedophiles.  First check the national statistics.  It is difficult to get accurate number of assaults for children.   For 2003-2004 there were an average of 204, 370 sexual assaults.  44% of the victims were under the age of 18.  In 2005 there were 191,670 victims of rape

Then there is another article where ‘here-say’ evidence about illegals being responsible for crimes and sex crimes is quite interesting.  It is the perfect example of bait and switch.  You get a person with a good reputation to say something then you quote it as news, without it being documented. 

 

I suppose the amazing thing about all of this is  how hard I’ve had to search for a repudiation of Deborah Schurman-Kauflin.  Finally, I found something in Scienceblogs.  Fortunately, they picked up the same thing I did.  The bottom line, once again conservatives in the anti-immigration and anti-Hispanic camp have completely been sucked into very bad science, just to prove their point.  What good is it to be RIGHT if you must rely on fakery and lies to get there?

 

“…Here's the trick. 2% of the convicted criminals who happen to be illegal immigrants are guilty of some kind of sex crime. Not 2% of the population of illegal immigrants. The population of convicted criminals is quite different from the population of people as a whole….”